The method

06

The method

A saving that cannot be reconciled to an invoice is not a saving, and a record that cannot be audited is not a record. Here is the arithmetic, the baseline it is measured against, and the point at which we stop claiming it.

06

The savings bridge

Illustrative proportions · endpoints modeled
Percent of the work that can move · every line below the gross is a deduction, including our fee and your cost of adopting us
Default fleet: 14.0% of movable · 4.21% of total · modeled
gross
Gross saving vs blended effective rate
+
Discount for accepting interruption
−
Fabric drag
−
Checkpoint write overhead
−
Rerun waste
−
Vendor management per supplier
−
Data logistics
−
Your cost of adopting Novation
−
Novation's fee
14.0%
Net modeled saving
Net means one thing. After every line, including our fee and your adoption cost. The eighth column is unusual and deliberate.
Two denominators. Quoted against the work that can move and against total spend, side by side, every time.
It can go negative. Below roughly $7M of annual spend, on the $150k subscription floor, the fixed costs exceed anything the fleet returns.

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An index cannot test your allocation

Three professional indexes now publish compute prices, and one of their administrators sells a benchmark tool. What none of them can do is run your own work on the allocation you are about to pay for, under an acceptance condition the supplier has agreed to. An index aggregates to one printable number; a test tool is only as good as what it is pointed at. In one study (Slynko et al., GPGPU ’26: eleven providers, 3,534 GPU instances), throughput on nominally identical H100s ranged 34.5% across providers on the PCIe sample and 10.4% on SXM.

So we measure it, using an existing benchmark suite where one fits your workload. The test runs on your actual allocation before any work starts, and a failed test has an agreed consequence — repair, reallocation, or cancellation on agreed terms — because a supplier sells hardware and uptime, not a warranty on your training throughput. That is the answer to the reasonable question of why you would not subscribe to an index instead: the index answers a question you did not ask. We mark your position against all three indexes, and we show the basis between them and your own contracts, because the two live H100 indexes disagree with each other week to week.

Which rate is the baseline

The three baselines on the problem page — stay put, your best alternative without us, the plan with us — each need a rate, and the rate is not your list price. Your blended effective rate is the reporting rate: what the whole fleet costs today, and what a saving gets reported against. The marginal rate at your incumbent, for this specific work in this specific window, is the decision rate: what you would pay if you did nothing. They are different numbers, and mixing them is how savings claims in this sector get inflated.

07

Which rate is the baseline

Conceptual
THE FLEET · WHAT YOU ACTUALLY PAY PER CHIP-HOUR ONE CAMPAIGN · ONE WINDOW ON-DEMAND LIST · REFERENCE LINE ONLY · NEVER A BASELINE OWNED FLEET COMMITTED SAVINGS PLAN SPOT OVERFLOW WIDTH = SHARE OF CHIP-HOURS · HEIGHT = RATE PAID BLENDED EFFECTIVE RATE · REPORTING BASELINE WHERE IT WOULD HAVE RUN THE INCUMBENT, THIS WINDOW MARGINAL RATE AT THE INCUMBENT · DECISION BASELINE WHERE IT RAN DELIVERED COST Δ PER-CAMPAIGN DECISION: DELIVERED COST VS THE GOLD LINE AGGREGATE REPORT: EVERYTHING VS THE GREEN LINE · THE STATEMENT SHOWS BOTH
Reporting baseline. The blend of owned, committed, plans, private offers and spot: what the fleet costs once every discount is counted. Every number we publish to you is measured against it.
Decision baseline. For one campaign the right comparison is the rate you would actually have paid at the incumbent in that window. Blending owned fleet into a dispatch decision understates the alternative.

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The baseline is written before the decision

Before a purchase is decided we store what would otherwise have happened: the requirement, the quotes considered, the timestamp, the constraint that bound, the approver, and the alternative agreed as your best route without us. It is append-only, in storage you own, and it cannot be edited afterwards. Later, the invoice is matched to it line by line. Where a saving has no feasible alternative recorded against it, we show it and leave it out of the number.

08

Written before the decision

Conceptual
t−1
Quotes arrive
From every qualified supplier, each with its age.
t 0
Baseline stored
What this would cost at the incumbent, sealed with four fields.
t 0
Decision
Deciding what runs where, against deadline, value cap and policy. The stored baseline cannot be edited after this point.
t +
Fill
Work runs at the chosen supplier. Conformance probes record what was actually delivered.
t ++
Reconcile
The invoice, line by line, against the stored baseline, not a fresh estimate.
Statement
Claimed, or not
Only savings with a feasible stored baseline are claimed. The rest are shown and left out of the number.
The four fields, sealed at t 0
01Quote source
02Timestamp
03Assumed instrument
04Would the incumbent have had capacity?
Capacity doubtful

The stored baseline is marked as such and the saving is not claimed. An infeasible stored baseline is an imaginary saving, and this is where most savings claims quietly die.

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A record is not a saving

Holding your contracts in one place prevents the liability and the write-off; it does not print a saving, and we do not count one for it. The one exception is counted only on reconciled actuals: a commitment that was sized to measured demand, against the shortfall or the overflow it replaced. Everything else the record does for finance — the position, the drawdown, the reconciliation, the authorizations — is stated, not priced.

Every number carries its status

Four labels, used everywhere on this site, so you always know what you are looking at.

Model estimate

Our model on assumed inputs. Not a result.

Historical analysis

Our model on your real data, looking backward.

Pilot observation

Measured in a test you funded and ran.

Reconciled actuals

Invoices matched to a stored baseline. The only one that is a saving.

Where it fails

About a third of the plausible range falls below our own 12% screening rule. We publish the whole grid rather than the passing part, because a desk that cannot tell you when not to hire it is a sales motion. Read it as a curve: the price gap and how much of the movable work you actually move trade off against each other, and a single make-or-break number would be wrong in both directions.

09

The threshold

Conceptual · modeled marker
The threshold test · net saving on the work that can move · the audit is designed to be failable
0%510152025% 12% · THE ABANDON LINE 14.0% · CALCULATOR DEFAULT FLEET · MODELED BELOW: CONSUME THE COMMITMENT, RENEGOTIATE AT RENEWAL ABOVE: MULTI-SUPPLIER REPAYS ITS OVERHEAD SAME LINE IN TOTAL SPEND: 3.6% ON A 30%-MOVABLE FLEET · 1.8% AT 15% MOVABLE
One number. The threshold is 12% of the movable pool, stated once, and the grid is published whole around it.
The marker is modeled. It is the open calculator's default fleet, not a customer result. Change an input and it moves; at a 1.35× price gap it falls below the line.

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